EXTREME AVALANCHE WARNING - THIS WEEKEND - ClubTread Community

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post #1 of (permalink) Old 04-11-2014, 06:33 PM Thread Starter
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Default EXTREME AVALANCHE WARNING - THIS WEEKEND

Figured I'd pass this on...

http://globalnews.ca/news/1266038/ex...c-backcountry/



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post #2 of (permalink) Old 04-11-2014, 06:46 PM
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That's funny. The CAC website is forecasting moderate-low avalanche risk across the board for Sat/Sun.
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post #3 of (permalink) Old 04-11-2014, 07:05 PM
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The warning applies to Northern areas.
E.g. http://www.avalanche.ca/cac/bulletin...thwest-coastal

The actual notice:
http://avalanche.ca/cac/140411


The notice does not actually use the word "Extreme" which has a specific meaning in the context of an avalanche forecast.


Not to say that things will be "safe" anywhere. It's going to be warm. The local forecast has some good advice.
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post #4 of (permalink) Old 04-11-2014, 09:39 PM
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I wonder how many people won't read past the thread title and cancel their trip to Elfin or Garibaldi Lake this weekend.
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post #5 of (permalink) Old 04-11-2014, 09:45 PM Thread Starter
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Just think 1 post could save someones life.



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post #6 of (permalink) Old 04-11-2014, 09:48 PM
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Just back from Cayoosh today. Avalanche cond. was moderate in alpine. Nothing moving. No shooting cracks or whumpfs. No real sunny breaks however. Watch out Sat/Sun in the sunshine.
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post #7 of (permalink) Old 04-11-2014, 09:53 PM
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quote:Originally posted by another jeff

That's funny. The CAC website is forecasting moderate-low avalanche risk across the board for Sat/Sun.
Once again, the moderate/low rating does not predict "risk". It is referring to the likelyhood of any and all avalanche activity.

Low - human and naturally triggered avalanches are very unlikely, use normal caution as it applies to traveling in snowy, mountainous terrain.

This level of caution is usually acknowledged to encompass a some basic knowledge surrounding the nature of the current, specific avalanche problem; ie: windslab, storm slab, loose wet avalanches, or the least predictable; deep persistent slabs.

Moderate - natural avalanches are still unlikely yet human triggered avalanches are more frequent particularly on specific aspects (direction in which the slope faces) or certain terrain features.

None of the above define the probability of consequence following the trigger. It's simply the likelyhood of trigger.

There are certainly instances where you may have a low
Likelihood of triggering in most places, yet a high overall "risk" due to the complex variable nature of deeply buried layers "waking up" and causing catastrophically large avalnches such as in a warming period .
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post #8 of (permalink) Old 04-11-2014, 10:11 PM
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A noteworthy observation with relevance:

I was with a high school group yesterday and as part of their mountain program they dug a snow profile on a southeast aspect at about 2200 meters in behind blackcomb.

On the surface was a very strong crust with 0cm ski penetration and 10-20cms boot pen. Below was a series of crusts and facets with a particular layer of concern down 70cms. Sudden collapse, CTE 1. A second test was done to confirm.

The crust was a highly laminated melt freeze crust with significant facetting over top.

It wasn't of particular concern to our travel given the relatively cold temps and lack of radiation effecting the snow surface. However if those two variables were to change, that layer would have concerned me greatly, mainly due to the implied energy of a release drown 70cms in a spring snowpack. It surprised me to see it on a southerly aspect, amd it will remain a concern until we see some continued warming or a rain event in which the hazard will likely jump up through the short term.

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