Well, you can tell I work in an office because I didn't think there'd been much precipitation over the past few days.

http://www.avalanche.ca/cac/bulletin...s/north-shore/

I'd appreciate opinions from some of our snow junkies. Think the "high" rating at treeline is warranted? Predictions for how long it will take the snow pack to heal?

I cancelled the beginner's snow shoe I was organizing because I knew that a few inches of snow on hard crust would qualify as "not fun."

Again, I'm no expert. I'd say that rating is expected for Wednesday. You have a least 3 of 5 red flags without even seeing the terrain.

New Snow coming
Warming Temps
Strong enough winds to transport snow and load lee slopes.

I'd expect given the crust that formed and the cold snow beginning yesterday evening turning into heavier wetter snow conditions are about as prime as they get as far as avalanche slopes on the new snow layers. The snowpack below seems to be pretty bomber but that could change with more snowfall/windloading and perhaps a small new snow avalanche could step down given the right conditions.

I would pretty much assume a weak bond exists between the frozen hard crust and the cold new snow, despite being a "snow" junkie, I'd prefer to see some rain soak these layers to help them bond else a persistent weak layer (PWL) could result and cause issues for an extended period of time, much like we saw last year where that layer remained somewhat reactive throughtout the entire season. So I'm praying for rain! Though this is entirely elevation dependant, I'm curious about recent beta on the snowpack for approx 2000m and above (any snow junkies care to chime in on this). Oh wait... its all here... http://www.telemarktalk.com/phpBB/vi...=asc&start=195

im no expert but I would imagine protected areas (trees) had more hoar frost with loading over top.

Mad Owl Woman.

If the CAC predicts a "high" rating, then all the signs to a professional with years of experience and training are evident that danger or hazard is going to be "high."

It's important to know that a professionally produced avalanche rating is not a "gut" feeling. Professional avalanche personnel follow strict guidelines in interpreting data and determining the forecast rating. Given the forecast precipitation levels, the pre-existing snow surfaces, the rising air temperatures, the forecast winds, and the terrain in the area, "high" sounds right on.

A situation that tends to fool people is when conditions are related as "moderate" or "considerable" and people assume this will be the highest rating over the region. Even on days of "moderate" it is possible to find unstable snow; in fact, I have seen statistics from the US that show almost as many people dying in avalanches when the rating is "moderate" (26% of all fatalities) as die during "high" ratings (34% of all fatalities). (see Tremper, Staying Alive in Avalanche Terrain, second ed., page 210, for example)

With respect, I'd also suggest being cautious as to trusting randomly solicited snow-stability ratings from a public forum over professional ratings that are peer-reviewed. I'm maybe not a snow junkie, but I am a professional in the field. Most of the time I am concerned about recognizing local avalanche danger exceptions that make local conditions more serious than regional bulletins, and therefore more dangerous. That seems to be the most sensible way to stay alive.

As for your last question; unfortunately, the answer usually ends up being "it depends" on a a lot of factors. As the north shore has periodic updates, watch for those to come up or phone or email your local forecaster to ask your questions. I think you'll find they're happy to chat with you.

It seems to me you did a sensible thing cancelling your beginner's snow shoe. I strongly doubt it would be fun. There will be another time that will be better.

Thanks folks!

Think I'll stick to low-elevation exploration this weekend.